Worsening Wildfires
- 6 days ago
- 8 min read
Wildfires have been part of the American landscape for centuries. Fire is a part of nature. Grasslands have historically burned every 1-35 years, and many forests have burned every 60-150 years. Burning maintains forage and open woodlands, creating important wildlife habitats. Plants with thick bark, such as ponderosa pine trees, can survive a low-intensity fire, and the seeds germinate in the fertile recently burned soil. Thousands of acres have burned every year, often with few consequences but occasionally with tragic outcomes. During the hot, dry summer of 1910, wildfires killed 86 people and burned more than 3,000,000 acres in Northern Idaho and Montana.
As a result, the U.S. Forest Service initiated an active fire suppression program in an effort to reduce loss of communities, life, timber and other forest products. The program, aided by the surplus of aircraft following World War II, was generally successful through the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s — a period with a relatively cool, moist climate.
By the 1970s, it was recognized that lack of fire was leading to changes in plant communities — including heavy fuel accumulations, like dead wood and dried underbrush, in older forests. The devastating 1988 Yellowstone fires were an example of the consequences. More recently, a warmer, drier climate has further accelerated fuel accumulations. Add in the expansion of human developments adjacent to forests, and you have a perfect storm brewing. Verisk Analytics estimates there are 4.5 million homes at high or very high risk of wildfire.
Nearly every year, wildfires change our landscapes on a large scale and pose a bigger threat to people than they did a few decades ago. The Camp Fire in November 2018 destroyed the town of Paradise, California, and surrounding communities. Tens of thousands of people were displaced, 86 people died, and more than 18,000 buildings burned. In October 2020, the Beachie Creek Fire in Oregon spread from 500 acres to more than 159,000 acres in one night as a result of a wind storm with gusts over 50 miles per hour. The Los Angeles fires in January 2025 claimed more than 30 lives and about 50,000 acres, forcing more than 180,000 people to flee their homes. So what is behind this shift from a quiet occurrence on the landscape to a wakeup call to so many? There are numerous factors at play.
Wildfire ignitions
The number of wildfires varies widely each year, and recent studies show the overall frequency is decreasing. However, these wildfires are larger, burn longer, and are more catastrophic.
Wildfires have a variety of causes. Lightning, for example, is a natural source of ignitions and one that has been an important process on the landscape. Unfortunately, human activities cause nearly 85% of wildfires, and many of the larger wildfires are human caused. Most are accidental, caused by things like campfires, cigarettes, sparks from trains, power line transformers, target shooting, and even baby gender reveal parties. Sadly, a few wildfires have been started as purposeful arson.
Fire behavior
Once there is an ignition, there are three key factors that drive fires: topography, fuels, and weather/climate.
Topography describes the shape of the land and its features, including canyons, valleys, slopes, rivers, and roads (which can change the natural topography). These land characteristics affect the speed of fire movement. Fire can burn on any landscape, but it will move fastest on steep slopes, burning primarily uphill.
Fuels, which are vegetation, sticks, logs, needles, and organic soils (peat or duff), feed wildfires. The amount, size, and moisture level and arrangement of trees, shrubs, grasses, and leaf and needle litter on the soil surface influence fire spread and intensity. Dry grasses ignite quickly, and a fire can spread rapidly; but grass fires don’t produce much heat and can usually be extinguished quickly.
Decades of fire suppression have led to the accumulation of fuels like dead wood and underbrush in many of our forests. Dry forests take a little more energy to ignite, but once fire gets a foothold, these forests can burn hot and, with sufficient wind, spread rapidly. Embers can even be carried ahead of the main fire one-quarter to one-half mile ahead. These embers can be very resistant to control efforts, often requiring a significant amount of rain or snow to stop their progression.
Weather and climate are key determinants of fire movement. Warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and strong winds create “red flag” conditions and serve as a warning that very active fire behavior can be expected. These conditions can be exacerbated by the cumulative effects of climate over a series of years. When areas experience short- or long-term drought, the vegetation becomes stressed and more readily receptive to fire embers. Stressed foliage will actively burn at lower temperatures, with higher relative humidity, and with less wind. While tree needles or leaves may be green, they are much drier now than under normal climate conditions.
Young pine trees in the northern Rocky Mountains were considered in the 1980s to be a “fuel break” — an area where fire is unlikely to burn through or has historically burned very slowly — but in recent years, fire has moved through them quickly. Additionally, shifts in climate have increased the length of wildfire seasons across the country. Higher temperatures and drier conditions occur earlier in the year and extend longer into the fall, adding weeks or even months to a fire season. Some areas now experience wildfires all year round.
Costs of wildfire
Economic cost: Wildfires are economically destructive natural disasters. The U.S. Department of the Interior estimates that annual wildfire damages range from $87 billion to $424 billion, depending on the year. The 2025 Los Angeles fires rank as one of the most financially costly natural disasters in world history. These losses are absorbed by insurance companies, homeowners, businesses, and government agencies. Globally, the U.S. accounts for the largest share of wildfire costs; nine of the ten most expensive wildfire events since 1970 have occurred in the U.S. This cost reflects not only the increase in fires due to climate change, but also the continued development in the U.S. of high-value homes and businesses in fire-prone areas.
Wildfires, like all catastrophes, worsen preexisting economic inequalities. Long after property damage is assessed and insurance claims are settled, homeowners and workers, particularly uninsured and low-income individuals, often face long-term financial hardship as homes, land, businesses, and jobs are lost.
Human cost: While wildfires typically cause fewer initial deaths than other disasters, the cost of human life from wildfires extends well beyond official and initial fatality counts. A recent study found that long-term exposure to tiny particulates from wildfire smoke contributed to an average of 24,100 deaths a year for the past 20 years in 48 states.
Tragically, while the immediate mortality of the L.A. fires was recorded as 31, a new study by the Boston University School of Public Health and the University of Helsinki suggests that, after taking into account smoke exposure and related effects, the death count is much higher, at 440. Post-fire pollution, particularly where industrial sites, hazardous waste, or infrastructure are burned, has deadly and lasting effects on human bodies. The air pollutants caused by fire impact other inhabited regions far beyond the burn sites.
Environmental cost: While natural wildfires can rejuvenate the landscape and biodiversity, the dramatic increase in size and intensity of wildfires across the U.S. has devastating costs on the environment. Wildfires are the biggest destroyers of forests around the world, voraciously consuming biodiversity and destroying the very trees that clean our planet from toxins. Wildfires also contaminate watersheds and damage the landscape, increasing risks for other hazards such as floods, landslides, drought, extreme heat, and erosion. This drives a ruthless cycle of wildfires and other disasters that stress and damage all living things on this Earth.
Making changes
Of the three drivers — topography, fuels, and climate — fuels are the quickest and easiest to change and, thus, typically the focus of land managers’ efforts to reduce wildfire impacts. The U.S. Forest Service estimates that there are about 100 million acres managed by federal agencies that are at high or very high risk of experiencing catastrophic wildfire. State and federal agencies actively work to reduce the risk, with a focus on fire prevention and reducing fuels. Federal budgets for “hazardous fuel reduction” have steadily increased during the past two decades.
Climate models predict a 30-600% increase in the extent of wildfire through the 21st century. As the climate continues to warm and extreme events increase, it will be much harder and more costly to affect changes in fuels to significantly modify the current wildfire trajectory. While changes to climate occur over a much longer period, if no efforts are initiated to moderate increasing temperatures and other impacts, it may become impossible to change fuels sufficiently; we will need to adapt to large, impactful wildfires as a “new norm” — if we can.
Prevention: Wildfires are often classified as natural disasters, but many are preventable. Although some are caused by natural events such as lightning, nearly 85% of U.S. wildfires are ignited by human activity. Individuals and communities can play a key role in reducing the threat of and impacts from wildfire. Here are a few recommendations:
Understand the risk of wildfire in your community.
Know what is in your community’s wildfire protection plan, or encourage development of a plan.
Assess your property for wildfire risk and preparedness.
Know the causes of human ignitions in your area, and work to prevent them. For example, extinguish campfires completely, follow firework safety, and never park on dry grass.
Encourage your congressional delegation to support legislation and funding to reduce wildfires and address climate change.
Beyond the individual responsibility of citizens to prevent wildfires from igniting, wildland fire management carried out by multiple U.S. agencies works to prevent wildfire ignitions and reduce the spread and severity of fires. Approaches to wildfire prevention are controversial. While some believe full suppression — extinguishing all wildfires as soon as possible — is a top priority, many studies suggest decades of full suppression have contributed to fuel accumulation, increasing the likelihood of larger and more severe wildfires in some ecosystems. According to the studies, safely managing the burn of wildfires under low and moderate conditions is a critical tool in managing the wildfire crisis today.
One way fire management prevents some wildfires is by allowing other wildfires to burn. This approach, known as managed wildfire, can reduce fuel buildup and improve ecosystem health, keeping wildfires from feeding too much and getting out of control. Fire is also used in an approach called prescribed burns. Prescribed burns are ignited by fire experts under specific weather conditions to safely burn land in a controlled environment. Before federal fire-suppression policies in the 20th century, Native Americans used controlled burning practices, or “cultural burns,” to promote ecological diversity and prevent future ruinous wildfires. This practice was outlawed for a time, but over the past few decades, prescribed burns have again become common practice in wildfire management.
And while most can agree that hazardous fuel treatments (like prescribed burns), brush clearing, and mechanical thinning are vital tools for moderating the severity of wildfires, an analysis by the Center for Western Priorities found that 35% fewer acres of U.S. land were treated for hazardous fuels in 2025 than in 2024. This buildup of wildfire fuel across the U.S. is cause for concern and highlights the importance of both effective land management and our human responsibility to be cautious and educated about wildfire prevention.
This article was adapted from an MWEG piece originally written by Laurie Kurth and published in 2021. Laurie is a retired U.S. Forest Service and National Park Service plant and fire ecologist. She was born in the Chicago, Illinois, suburbs and has lived and worked across the U.S. in some of the greatest places. She now resides in Montana with her cat, where they enjoy hiking, kayaking, traveling, and quilting.
Paulette Stauffer Henriod, environmental program specialist for Mormon Women for Ethical Government, and Natasha Rogers, researcher/writer for Mormon Women for Ethical Government, contributed to the 2026 updates for this article.
