Let’s talk about political polls

Why do organizations use polls?

Polls are one tool for gauging public sentiment. They are a sample of the population used to estimate voting intention. Polls are not precision instruments for forecasting an election’s outcome.

Who pays for political polls? 

Political polls are often funded and conducted by media organizations, political parties, academic institutions, or polling firms. Media outlets may commission polls to gauge public opinion, while political parties use polls for strategic purposes. 

Who conducts political polls?

Polling firms, both independent and affiliated, specialize in conducting surveys to gather data on political preferences. Academic institutions may also conduct polls for research purposes.

How many people should polling firms interview?

The number of people polled is the “sample size.” Polls with fewer than 800 are more likely to be subject to error. Credible polls usually have between 1,000 and 10,000 respondents. A poll with an excessive sample size might indicate cheap and problematic sampling methods.

How do credible polls accurately represent the whole population? 

Pollsters utilize a sample of people that is reflective of the larger population’s diversity. This representative group allows for reliable predictions about the entire population based on the observed patterns within the sample group. Think about it like tasting soup: You don’t have to eat the entire pot to tell if it’s well seasoned. Just a spoonful is enough.

What are the challenges to ensuring a poll is accurate?

• 85% of undecided voters make their decision within a week of election day, making their intentions difficult to predict in advance.

• Sometimes samples over-represent certain groups and under-represent others.

• Presidential elections are ultimately decided by electoral college votes, so national polls may not reflect the electoral college vote distribution accurately.

What should I look for as I read the results of a poll?

Consider the source and the methods.

• Who conducted and paid for the survey?

• How were respondents chosen and contacted?

• What questions were respondents asked?

• How were the questions organized?

All of these factors can affect poll results.

What is the margin of error, and how should I use it?

The margin of error estimates how much the polling results may differ from real-life results. For example, a poll that measures an opinion at 50% with a margin of error +/-3 means the real-life measure could range from 47% to 53%. Some experts suggest doubling the margin of error to account for potential discrepancies.

Be a conscious consumer. Understand how to analyze political polls.

Sources:

Washington Post: “How to read polls like an expert — or, at least, not like a newbie,” https://bit.ly/48n66kS

London School of Economics and Political Science: “Why are polls important during elections?” https://bit.ly/48mRja4

PBS NewsHour: “What polling does — and doesn’t — tell us,” https://bit.ly/3RQuPHu

NY Times: “The savvy person’s guide to reading the latest polls,” https://bit.ly/41LbFHm

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